Hazard Profile

HAZARDSCAPE
            The municipality of San Jose de Buenavista is a municipality southwest portion of the province of Antique with coordinates of 10-45’ latitude and 122-56' longitude. Being part of the Philippine archipelago, it is exposed to almost all types of natural hazard because of its geographical location.
Land use and urbanization has contributed to the human-induced hazards in San Jose de Buenavista.
TYPHOON, STORM SURGE AND OIL SPILL
            The western flank of the Municipality is a 13.65 km coastline facing the Sulu Sea. More than 50% (35,836 persons) of the total population (54,871 persons as of 2007 NSO Census) are living along this side vulnerable during typhoon season.            San Jose de Buenavista's climatic pattern belongs to Type 1 of the Modified Coronas Classification. It has distinct periods of wet and dry. Wet period is during the months of June to November and dry period is from December to May.
            The typhoon season is typically from June to December peaking in the month of August which overlaps with the lean fishing season on June to October. The peak fishing season is November to May.
            According to the Tropical Storm Risk in Asia-Pacific Map (as of May 01, 2011), San Jose de Buenavista falls along the zone where there is a 10% probability of a storm with 154-177 kph or signal number 2 (base on the Saffir-Simpson Scale) striking in the next 10 years. 
Strong winds associated with typhoons combined with high tide could generate storm surges that affect fourteen coastal coastal barangays Maybato South, Maybato North, Malaiba, San Angel, Barangay 3, Barangay 4, Barangay 8, Madrangca, Funda-Dalipe, Mojon, San Fernando, Magcalon, San Pedro and Durog.
            These barangays are at particular risk to storm surge inundation for they lay just a few meters above sea level.
Surge and wave heights on shore are affected by the configuration and bathymetry of the ocean bottom. A narrow shelf, or one that has a steep drop from the shoreline and subsequently produces deep water in close proximity to the shoreline like along Madrangca, Magcalon, Mojon, San Fernando, Barangay 3, portions of Funda-Dalipe and San Pedro tends to produce a lower surge, but a higher and more powerful wave.
            On the other hand, long, gently sloping shelves and shallow water depths like in Maybato South, Maybato North, Malaiba, San Angel, Barangay 4 and Barangay 8 are usually subjected to higher storm surge but smaller waves. For one, in Maybato North storm surge could reach up to the back of its barangay hall which is more or less 30 meters from the highest tide.
            In Maybato Sur, the impact of any storm surge could be further aggravated by the Malandog River. The river plus a gently sloping shelf will bring flooding further inland to inundate the nipa area.
            Durog is a high risk barangay. Aside from being a coastal barangay, it is bounded by rivers in both sides and a river bisects the barangay in the middle. Fortunately, the shelf in the mouth of the river in Durog is steep. This could reduce the height of the storm surge but the waves are powerful.
            Meanwhile, the impact of storm surge in reduced forBarangay Malaiba and some puroks of Barangay San Angel. There is a breakwater off the coast part of the San Jose Port which acts as a storm surge barrier.
            Around 4,165 of this people living along the coast are fisherfolks according to the Office of Community Services.
           
Number
Municipal Fishermen
2,508
Commercial Fishworkers
520
Fish Processors
60
Fish Trader/ Vendor
305
Fry Catchers
772
Total
4,165
            These people are directly affected by impact of typhoon and the associated storm surge. These fisherfolks tend to build their houses near the shoreline and the houses are often times made of light materials.
            Typhoon and storm surge have also reportedly damaged fishing vessels and rip away gears leaving commercial fishworkers and municipal fishermen without source of income for some time.
            The fourteen coastal barangays are also exposed to the threat of an oil spill. The Municipality is facing a national ship lane. Sea mishaps could cause oil spills that could threaten the coastal ecosystem and livelihood of fisherfolks.
FLOOD AND MONSOON RAIN
            San Jose de Buenavista is dissected by two major river systems: the Sibalom River System and the Malandog River System. Minor creeks and streams traverse the entire municipality.  Moreover, about 85.56% or 3,807 hectares, of the total land has slopes of between 0-3 percent (flat nearly). 
            The combination of the presence of river systems dissecting the town, its generally flat landscape (85.56% are nearly flat), and being part of the Antique Trough (a narrow depositional area located west of Antique Range) makes certain areas of the Municipality prone to flooding due to heavy rain associated with typhoon and monsoon rains.
            Barangays Bariri, Cansadan-Tubudan, Catungan-Bugarot, Durog, Inabasan, San Pedro and Supa were identified as barangays with high susceptibility to flooding.
            These areas susceptible to perennial flooding are barangays where a large portion is allocated to agriculture. San Jose de Buenavista’s total land area is 4,450 hectares of which 2,614 hectares (58.74%) of this are agricultural. The flood prone barangays cover an estimated 78% (2,026.21 hectares) of the total land area used for agriculture.
            An estimated 897 farmers from the flood prone barangays and their family members potentially suffer financial losses when flood inundates farm lands and destroys crops. This figure does not even take into account the farm workers who will be out of job during harvest season.
Barangay
Population
Farmers
Percentage of Farmers
Land Area
Bariri
           1,128
133
12%
288.06
Cansadan
1,597
132
8%
397.86
Bugarot
939
106
11%
294
Durog
340
72
21%
211.99
Inabasan
1273
180
14%
284.75
San Pedro
5127
79
2%
262.68
Supa
1362
195
14%
286.87
 
         11,766
897
8%
2,026.21
Total Land Area for Agriculture
 
 
 
2,614.00
Percentage of Agricultural Land
 
 
 
78%
LANDSLIDE
            There are existing exposures of irregular masses of geologic domes and rolling hills in San Jose de Buenavista situated specifically in the northeastern and eastern sides of the town proper. About 85.56% or 3,807 hectares have slopes between 0-3% (level to nearly level area), 3.5% or 158.0 hectares have slopes between 3-8% (gently sloping to undulating), 4.22% or 188 hectares have 8-18% slope (undulating to rolling areas), and the remaining 6.67% or 308 hectares have slopes of 18-30% up to 30-50% (strongly sloping to very steeply sloping hilly lands).
The general topography of the Municipality makes it less susceptible to landslides. However, Barangay Durog and portion of Barangay San Pedro act as a deposition area of debris from any landslide in Sibalom or San Remegio carried along Sibalom River.
There are also some population of Barangay 5, Barangay 8, Cansadan-Tubudan, Lugutan-Igbonglo, Pantao and Supa who are in danger of landslides. These are the areas where there are steep slopes.  Situated directly to the east is the Pantao Hills where barangays San Pedro, Durog, Pantao and Igbonglo may be found.  A separate hill the Binirayan Hill is located east of the poblacion. At its foot are Barangay 5, Barangay 8 and Cansadan-Tubudan.
            Landslides in these barangays could be triggered by heavy rains or by shallow earthquake.
EARTHQUAKE, LIQUIFACTION AND TSUNAMI
            Earthquakes are not far-fetched event for San Jose de Buenavista. The Municipality is bounded by inland and undersea active earthquake-generating faults and trenches capable of creating high magnitude earthquakes. There is the Tablas Fault System, a major fault system occurs along the western side of Antique and there is the West Panay Fault running along the Antique Range.
            San Jose de Buenavista’s geologic formation is Quaternary Alluvium (Recent Holocene). According to a study of Ulamis and Kilic (2008)[1] conducted in Turkey, groundwater bearing alluvial units in the seismically active settlement areas may bring out probable damage on the urban and built environment due to liquefaction.
This same situation makes San Jose at risk of disease outbreak. People living close to each other make the spread of disease easy. Cramped space for housing limits people’s capacity to put up their own sanitary toilets.
            Barangays 1 to 8, Atabay, portions of San Pedro, San Angel, Malaiba, Maybato North and Maybato South are at risk to fire. The fishing villages of San Angel, Malaiba, Maybato North and Maybato South are very susceptible to fire as fisherfolks tend to keep significant amount of fuel at home.                       
VEHICULAR ACCIDENT
            In 2015, the Municipal Health Office (MHO) has indicated that one of the ten leading causes of mortality in the Municipality is (vehicular) accident.
TOP MORTALITY (CY – 2015)
(Source: San Jose Rural Health Unit)
Diseases
Number
Rate
1.    Pneumonia
131
20.73/10,000
2.    Cancer (All Forms)
92
14.56/10,000
3.    Hypertensive Cerebrovascular Disease
87
13.76/10,000
4.    Cerebrovascular Accidents (Strokes)
63
10/10,000
5.    Diabetes Mellitus (All Types)
51
8.07/10,000
6.    Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Diseases
41
6.49/10,000
7.    Myocardial Infarction
38
6.01/10,000
8.    Accidents (All Forms)
36
5.70/10,000
9.    Hypertension
28
4.43/10,000
10.Sepsis Neonatorum
20
3.17/10,000
            Maybato North and Atabay have accident prone areas. These barangays have curves after a long stretch of straight road.
            According to Lamm et al. (1999)[1], on the whole, road sections with curves are regarded as more dangerous, (between 1.5 and 4 times accident rate) than road sections with a straight alignment.
            Studies have shown that the general curvature of a road has a direct effect on the drivers’ level of attention and expectations with respect to the forthcoming road alignment. The expectations of the driver with regards to the road design are of key importance to traffic safety. 
Road with an isolated curve can is likely to take the driver by surprise – that is, the road alignment would not conform to driver expectation.
 
            Nonetheless, long straight roads have other potential risks including higher speeds, fatigue, lack of visual and other stimuli, glare etc. as with the case of the roads from Crossing Aldea, Sibalom to Atabay, San Jose.
            Aside from the road curvature and curve density, San Jose de Buenavista also has many establishments offering night time refreshments and entertainment. This situation somehow is a contributing factor to vehicular accidents at night as driving under the influence of alcohol adversely affects judgment and reflexes.
11.2.   CLIMATE CHANGE:
CLIMATE RISK PROFILE         
            Across Earth’s geologic time, the climate has been an unstable    dynamic system that has undergone cycles of change of heating up or    cooling down with corresponding rises and falls in sea level.
            According to the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), climate change refers to any significant change in measures of    climate such as temperature, precipitation, or wind lasting for an extended period (decades or longer).
            Climate change may result from:
·         Natural factors, such as changes in the sun's intensity or slow changes in the Earth's orbit around the sun;
·         Natural processes within the climate system (e.g. changes in ocean circulation);
·         Human activities that change the atmosphere's composition (e.g. through burning fossil fuels) and the land surface (e.g. deforestation, reforestation, urbanization, desertification, etc.)
            The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that      human activities, in particular fossil fuel use and changing land-uses, are the dominant factor are responsible for most of the unusually rapidly warming observed.
                        According to the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) briefing note for the United Nation International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Secretariat (UNISDR), climate change will affect all countries, but people in the poorest countries and poor people in richer countries are more likely to suffer the most. They tend to live in high-risk areas such as unstable slopes and flood plains, and often cannot afford well-built houses. Many of them depend on climate-sensitive sectors, such as     agriculture, and have little or no means to cope with climate change, for example owing to low savings, no property insurance and poor access to public services.
            Climate change is not the sole reason for catastrophes but helps   create the conditions for them. Natural hazards by themselves do not cause disasters. It is the combination of an exposed, vulnerable and ill-prepared population or community with a hazard event that results in a disaster.
            The Tropical Storm Risk in Asia-Pacific Map (as of May 01, 2011), showed that San Jose de Buenavista falls along the zone where there is a 10% probability of a storm with 154-177 kph striking in the next 10 years.
            However, the danger of tropical storms is not just its wind power but the amount of precipitation it brings. More rain means that if without a well-planned and well-maintained drainage system, even barangays which are not usually flooded will experience flooding. For example in Barangay 6 and Atabay in which DENR Mines and Geosciences Bureau Geohazard assessment indicated that flooding in these barangays are due to drainage problems.
            Furthermore, according to Buan et. Al. (1996)[1], rainfall in tropical areas such as the Philippines is generally high, and so a decrease in rainfall of only 10% may not affect the water supply significantly, but an increase of the same magnitude may affect crop production tremendously because of frequent occurrences of floods.
                        Another danger associated with the changing climate is the rising of the sea level. With a large portion of its land area (90%) has an elevation of below 10-meters above sea level San Jose de Buenavista is at risk with the predicted sea level rise due to global warming.
            Sea levels are projected to rise by the end of the century (2090-2099) by 0.35 meters (0.23 to 0.47 m, although the spatial manifestation of this rise will not be uniform due to circulation changes and ocean density.
A simulation map from www.floodfiretree.net for a worst case scenario of a meter sea level rise shows inundation of portions of the coastal barangays.
 When this happens, private investments on tourism along the beach will be affected. Public infrastructure also such as the San Jose Sea Port will also be affected.
           The rising water will also displace many families. According to the Participatory Coastal Resource Assessment (PCRA) conducted on May 2004, there are approximately 5,984 coastal households in San Jose. It would take a toll on the government to provide relocation site for households affected by the event.
                        Salt water intrusion into ground water may also be experienced (as indicated by blue dots on the map) contaminating the ground water used for drinking and irrigation. This phenomenon may be hastened by too much groundwater extraction due to increasing demand of urbanization and growing population. Currently, ground spring and deep wells located in Barangay Cansadan-Tubudan and Purok Tinapok, Brgy. 8 supplies more or less 3,790 households in the 19 barangays of the Municipality.
                        Relative to salt water intrusion, soil with too much salt content could be no longer conducive to many crops. Thus, crop yield may decrease.
            Also associated with climate change is the drought. Wet season rainfall provides the majority of water supplies to the irrigation of San Jose de Bue
navista.
            Report from the Municipal Agriculture Office (2007) showed that 2,748 hectares planted with rice were generally irrigated. However, irrigation water does not reach the Municipality anymore especially during the dry season. The irrigation water of the Municipality comes from the Municipality of Sibalom.
            Due to continuing degradation of Southwest Panay (Padlusan) forest reserve, the municipality may later suffer shortage of potable and agricultural water.            Drought is damaging in the since the irrigation system is also dependent upon sufficient rain water.
 
            While average annual and monthly rainfall changes are inconsistent across this region of the Pacific, recent evidence and model simulations point to a more frequent occurrence of El Niño weather patterns frequently associated with climate change, bringing an increase in drought conditions along this region.
            The El Niño causing significant declines in agricultural productivity. More frequent El Niño events could increase the intensity and occurrence of droughts as well as intensity of tropical cyclone.
            San Jose according to the risk mapping of Manila Observatory and the Department of environment and natural resources is low risk to El Nino. However, frequent El Nino would put pressure on the food supply sufficiency.
I-                         During growth, rice plants are very sensitive to extremes of temperature. Crops can become sterile if temperatures exceed 35 °C around flowering time, reducing the amount of rice available for consumption. Low temperatures during other stages of the plants' growth can also have a significant negative effect on yield. Decreased yield could lead to food insecurity.